Model table
Serie A xG & xPTS table
Every Serie A club ranked by the model’s expected goals and expected points over this season’s settled matches, next to what actually happened.
Inter has the best expected goal difference in the Serie A (+8.7) after 7 rated matches.
Cagliari has collected the most points above its expected points (+6.5); Fiorentina the fewest (-5.0).
Rated matches only: fixtures the model priced before kick-off. Sorted by expected goal difference. Fixture and result data last updated Oct 17
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xGD | xPTS | Pts−xPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 7 | 15.6 | 6.9 | +8.7 | 14.9 | +4.1 |
| 2 |  Roma | 6 | 10.6 | 6.1 | +4.5 | 11.2 | +2.8 |
| 3 |  Juventus | 6 | 9.2 | 5.2 | +4.0 | 11.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 |  Como | 5 | 7.6 | 4.6 | +3.0 | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| 5 |  Milan | 6 | 8.0 | 6.1 | +2.0 | 9.6 | +2.4 |
| 6 |  Atalanta | 5 | 6.7 | 5.6 | +1.1 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 7 |  Napoli | 5 | 6.9 | 6.3 | +0.6 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 8 |  Venezia | 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | -0.1 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
| 9 |  Lazio | 4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 5.1 | +4.9 |
| 10 |  Frosinone | 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 3.6 | +2.4 |
| 11 |  Bologna | 7 | 8.7 | 9.5 | -0.7 | 9.2 | -4.2 |
| 12 |  Udinese | 6 | 7.1 | 8.2 | -1.1 | 7.5 | -3.5 |
| 13 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 6.0 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 6.0 | -5.0 |
| 14 |  Genoa | 5 | 4.9 | 6.4 | -1.5 | 5.7 | -2.7 |
| 15 |  Sassuolo | 5 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.2 | 5.3 | +2.7 |
| 16 |  Monza | 3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | -2.2 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 17 |  Cagliari | 6 | 5.6 | 8.1 | -2.4 | 6.5 | +6.5 |
| 18 |  Lecce | 5 | 3.5 | 6.8 | -3.3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 19 |  Torino | 6 | 6.7 | 10.5 | -3.8 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 20 |  Parma | 6 | 4.3 | 8.6 | -4.4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
What is an xG table?
An xG table re-orders the league by chance quality instead of goals: expected goals for, expected goals against and their difference. It shows which clubs are over- or under-performing their play. A side high in the real table but low here is riding good finishing or a goalkeeper in form, and usually drifts back.
The figures here are the model’s pre-match expected goals — its attack and defence ratings, refitted after every round — not shot-based xG. They are stored before kick-off and never revised, so the table is a record of what the model expected, matched against what happened.
Expected points (xPTS) convert each match’s probabilities into points: win probability × 3 plus draw probability, summed over the club’s matches. Points minus xPTS is the luck column: positive means the club has collected more than its performances were worth.
xG, xPTS and the other terms in the glossary · How the model rates attack and defence