Model table
Eredivisie xG & xPTS table
Every Eredivisie club ranked by the model’s expected goals and expected points over this season’s settled matches, next to what actually happened.
PSV Eindhoven has the best expected goal difference in the Eredivisie (+12.6) after 8 rated matches.
AZ Alkmaar has collected the most points above its expected points (+5.6); Telstar the fewest (-5.8).
Rated matches only: fixtures the model priced before kick-off. Sorted by expected goal difference. Fixture and result data last updated Oct 17
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xGD | xPTS | Pts−xPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 23.2 | 10.7 | +12.6 | 17.4 | +0.6 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 14.9 | 9.8 | +5.1 | 12.8 | +4.2 |
| 3 |  FC Twente | 6 | 12.1 | 7.5 | +4.6 | 11.1 | +2.9 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 6 | 11.8 | 9.0 | +2.8 | 10.1 | -1.1 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 10.7 | 8.8 | +1.9 | 9.4 | +5.6 |
| 6 |  NEC Nijmegen | 6 | 11.9 | 10.2 | +1.7 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| 7 |  FC Utrecht | 7 | 12.2 | 11.5 | +0.6 | 10.0 | -3.0 |
| 8 |  SC Heerenveen | 8 | 13.4 | 13.2 | +0.2 | 11.3 | -2.3 |
| 9 |  Telstar | 6 | 9.4 | 10.1 | -0.7 | 7.8 | -5.8 |
| 10 |  FC Groningen | 7 | 10.9 | 11.8 | -0.9 | 9.2 | +1.8 |
| 11 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 11.4 | 12.6 | -1.2 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 12 |  Willem II | 4 | 5.1 | 7.1 | -2.0 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| 13 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 7.9 | 10.1 | -2.1 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 |  Excelsior | 8 | 11.1 | 13.7 | -2.5 | 9.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 |  Cambuur | 4 | 5.5 | 8.8 | -3.3 | 3.6 | -2.6 |
| 16 |  Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 8.1 | 12.0 | -3.8 | 5.9 | +4.1 |
| 17 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 9.4 | 15.0 | -5.6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 |  PEC Zwolle | 6 | 7.4 | 14.7 | -7.3 | 4.3 | -0.3 |
What is an xG table?
An xG table re-orders the league by chance quality instead of goals: expected goals for, expected goals against and their difference. It shows which clubs are over- or under-performing their play. A side high in the real table but low here is riding good finishing or a goalkeeper in form, and usually drifts back.
The figures here are the model’s pre-match expected goals — its attack and defence ratings, refitted after every round — not shot-based xG. They are stored before kick-off and never revised, so the table is a record of what the model expected, matched against what happened.
Expected points (xPTS) convert each match’s probabilities into points: win probability × 3 plus draw probability, summed over the club’s matches. Points minus xPTS is the luck column: positive means the club has collected more than its performances were worth.
xG, xPTS and the other terms in the glossary · How the model rates attack and defence