Model table
Bundesliga xG & xPTS table
Every Bundesliga club ranked by the model’s expected goals and expected points over this season’s settled matches, next to what actually happened.
Bayern München has the best expected goal difference in the Bundesliga (+12.2) after 5 rated matches.
Elversberg has collected the most points above its expected points (+4.2); Borussia Mönchengladbach the fewest (-5.8).
Rated matches only: fixtures the model priced before kick-off. Sorted by expected goal difference. Fixture and result data last updated Oct 17
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xGD | xPTS | Pts−xPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 5 | 17.5 | 5.3 | +12.2 | 12.7 | -1.7 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 10.5 | 5.4 | +5.1 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 10.1 | 6.5 | +3.6 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 4 |  Freiburg | 4 | 7.7 | 5.3 | +2.4 | 7.1 | +2.9 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 6 | 11.7 | 9.5 | +2.2 | 9.9 | -0.9 |
| 6 |  Mainz 05 | 5 | 8.2 | 6.6 | +1.6 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 7 |  Hoffenheim | 4 | 8.3 | 6.7 | +1.5 | 6.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 9.6 | 9.7 | -0.1 | 7.2 | -4.2 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 10.6 | 11.5 | -0.9 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| 10 |  Paderborn | 2 | 2.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 11 |  Elversberg | 2 | 2.6 | 4.1 | -1.5 | 1.8 | +4.2 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 6 | 9.6 | 11.3 | -1.7 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 13 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 6.7 | 8.4 | -1.7 | 5.8 | -5.8 |
| 14 |  Augsburg | 5 | 6.9 | 9.3 | -2.4 | 5.7 | +2.3 |
| 15 |  Schalke 04 | 2 | 1.9 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 1.4 | -0.4 |
| 16 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 4.9 | 9.5 | -4.7 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| 17 |  Hamburger SV | 6 | 6.5 | 11.7 | -5.2 | 5.2 | +3.8 |
| 18 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 4.1 | 10.3 | -6.2 | 2.7 | -0.7 |
What is an xG table?
An xG table re-orders the league by chance quality instead of goals: expected goals for, expected goals against and their difference. It shows which clubs are over- or under-performing their play. A side high in the real table but low here is riding good finishing or a goalkeeper in form, and usually drifts back.
The figures here are the model’s pre-match expected goals — its attack and defence ratings, refitted after every round — not shot-based xG. They are stored before kick-off and never revised, so the table is a record of what the model expected, matched against what happened.
Expected points (xPTS) convert each match’s probabilities into points: win probability × 3 plus draw probability, summed over the club’s matches. Points minus xPTS is the luck column: positive means the club has collected more than its performances were worth.
xG, xPTS and the other terms in the glossary · How the model rates attack and defence