Model table
Ligue 1 xG & xPTS table
Every Ligue 1 club ranked by the model’s expected goals and expected points over this season’s settled matches, next to what actually happened.
Paris Saint-Germain has the best expected goal difference in the Ligue 1 (+6.0) after 6 rated matches.
Monaco has collected the most points above its expected points (+5.6); Le Havre the fewest (-4.4).
Rated matches only: fixtures the model priced before kick-off. Sorted by expected goal difference. Fixture and result data last updated Oct 17
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xGD | xPTS | Pts−xPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 12.8 | 6.8 | +6.0 | 11.9 | -0.9 |
| 2 |  Lens | 5 | 9.4 | 6.5 | +2.9 | 8.7 | -2.7 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 6 | 9.1 | 6.9 | +2.2 | 9.7 | +1.3 |
| 4 |  Lille | 5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | +2.1 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 6 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 6 |  Paris FC | 6 | 8.6 | 7.9 | +0.8 | 8.7 | +2.3 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | -0.1 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 8 |  Marseille | 5 | 8.4 | 8.4 | -0.1 | 6.9 | -3.9 |
| 9 |  Monaco | 6 | 10.2 | 10.2 | -0.1 | 8.4 | +5.6 |
| 10 |  Le Mans | 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | -0.4 | 3.8 | -1.8 |
| 11 |  Troyes | 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | -0.6 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 12 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -1.1 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 13 |  Brest | 6 | 7.2 | 8.3 | -1.2 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 |  Toulouse | 6 | 6.8 | 8.4 | -1.6 | 7.1 | -1.1 |
| 15 |  Auxerre | 6 | 6.9 | 8.8 | -1.9 | 7.1 | -1.1 |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 6 | 5.3 | 7.6 | -2.3 | 6.4 | -4.4 |
| 17 |  Angers | 5 | 4.0 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 |  Nice | 6 | 5.8 | 9.0 | -3.3 | 5.9 | +2.1 |
What is an xG table?
An xG table re-orders the league by chance quality instead of goals: expected goals for, expected goals against and their difference. It shows which clubs are over- or under-performing their play. A side high in the real table but low here is riding good finishing or a goalkeeper in form, and usually drifts back.
The figures here are the model’s pre-match expected goals — its attack and defence ratings, refitted after every round — not shot-based xG. They are stored before kick-off and never revised, so the table is a record of what the model expected, matched against what happened.
Expected points (xPTS) convert each match’s probabilities into points: win probability × 3 plus draw probability, summed over the club’s matches. Points minus xPTS is the luck column: positive means the club has collected more than its performances were worth.
xG, xPTS and the other terms in the glossary · How the model rates attack and defence