Performance
The full settled record of the model in its covered leagues: hit rate, Brier score, calibration and flat-stake returns. Bad months stay on the page.
Settled matches from Jul 23 to Sep 3
- Settled
- 177
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 48.0%
- 85 of 177 picks
- Brier
- 0.627
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- ROI
- -14.1%
- flat stake, closing odds, 138 bets
Monthly hit rate
orange bars = fewer than 30 matches| Month | n | W–L | Hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 10 | 6–4 | 60.0% | 0.642 |
| Aug 2026 | 161 | 77–84 | 47.8% | 0.626 |
| Jul 2026 | 6 | 2–4 | 33.3% | 0.620 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Calibration
calibrated confidence vs observed hit rate| Confidence | n | Predicted | Observed | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 59 | 37.2% | 33.9% | −3 |
| 40–50% | 38 | 42.5% | 52.6% | +10 |
| 50–60% | 59 | 51.8% | 57.6% | +6 |
| 60–70% | 13 | 64.5% | 69.2% | +5 |
| 70–80% | 1 | 70.5% | 0.0% | −70 |
A well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal: picks published at 60% should land about 60% of the time. Gaps beyond 10 points are marked. Bins with fewer than 10 picks are listed but not plotted.
By league
| League | n | W–L | Hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 42 | 17–25 | 40.5% | 0.710 |
| Eredivisie | 29 | 14–15 | 48.3% | 0.596 |
| Serie A | 20 | 15–5 | 75.0% | 0.468 |
| Ligue 1 | 18 | 9–9 | 50.0% | 0.615 |
| Premier League | 16 | 7–9 | 43.8% | 0.681 |
| Liga Portugal | 16 | 6–10 | 37.5% | 0.656 |
| LaLiga | 15 | 8–7 | 53.3% | 0.634 |
| Brasileirão | 12 | 4–8 | 33.3% | 0.652 |
| Bundesliga | 9 | 5–4 | 55.6% | 0.524 |
Only leagues with settled matches are listed.
By market
| Market | n | W–L | Hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 177 | 85–92 | 48.0% | 0.627 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 177 | 111–66 | 62.7% | 0.229 |
| Both teams to score | 177 | 102–75 | 57.6% | 0.234 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Flat-stake return
Aug 14 – Sep 3- Bets
- 138 · 62–76
- Staked
- 138.00
- Returned
- 118.57
- Profit
- -19.43 (-14.1%)
- Bookmaker favourite
- 47.8% · Brier 0.613
One unit on the model's 1X2 pick at the last captured odds before kick-off (closing, else opening). Only matches with an odds snapshot count, so this window is shorter than the full record. The bookmaker line shows how often the market favourite won over the same matches, with its margin-free Brier.
Computed Fri, Sep 4, 11:56. Recomputed hourly. How the numbers are defined: methodology.