Spain
LaLiga
Model probabilities and the settled record for the LaLiga.
LaLiga is Spain's top flight: 20 clubs and 38 rounds. Home advantage has historically been strong here, and the league's attack and defence ratings are refitted every week as results come in.
Barcelona lead the LaLiga with 27 points from 9 matches, 5 ahead of Atlético Madrid. Next up: Levante vs Athletic Club on Wednesday, October 21.
The figures on this page are the settled LaLiga record of the model: the hit rate is the share of 1X2 picks that came in, the Brier score measures how well the probabilities matched the results (lower is better), and the return is measured against the closing market price with one unit per match. Nothing is removed after the fact. How these figures are produced Full LaLiga track record.
Fixture and result data last updated Oct 19, 11:20 PM GMT+2
- Settled
- 77
- Hit rate
- 50.6%
- 39 of 77 picks
- Brier
- 0.567
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- ROI
- -17.7%
- flat stake, closing odds, 70 bets
By month: Aug 2026 53.3% (30) · Sep 2026 42.9% (28) · Oct 2026 57.9% (19)
Upcoming
Open a fixture for its public pre-match overview: kick-off, standings, form and head-to-head.
Predictions are for members
Predictions for these LaLiga fixtures — pick, probabilities and goal markets — are for members. Create a free account and see them for 7 days.
Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 9 | +30 | 27 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 9 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 9 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 9 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Alavés | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 |  Celta Vigo | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 |  Deportivo A Coruña | 9 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Osasuna | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Athletic Club | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Villarreal | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 8 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 9 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 8 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 |  Elche | 9 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 9 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 9 | -12 | 4 |
Recent results
Final scores of the latest settled matches; open a match for the model’s settled pick.
- FinishedGetafe1Rayo Vallecano1
- FinishedReal Madrid4Sevilla1
- FinishedMálaga2Real Sociedad5
- FinishedCelta Vigo2Deportivo Alavés1
- FinishedOsasuna2Racing Santander0
- FinishedValencia0Athletic Club0
- FinishedReal Betis2Barcelona5
- FinishedVillarreal0Elche0
- FinishedEspanyol0Atlético Madrid1
- FinishedDeportivo A Coruña1Levante1
Predictions are for members
78 settled LaLiga picks with outcome and score are for members. Create a free account and see the full record for 7 days.
Other leagues
Team strengths for the LaLiga are refitted as results come in; probabilities on older matches reflect the fit at publication time.