Track record
LaLiga track record
Every LaLiga prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Since August 15, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 34 of 71 settled LaLiga matches (47.9%), with a Brier score of 0.586.
Over/under 2.5 goals landed 69.0% of the time (71 matches) and both-teams-to-score 54.9% (71).
One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -18.9% over 67 matches.
By month: Aug 2026 53% (30) · Sep 2026 43% (28) · Oct 2026 46% (13).
Window Aug 15 – Oct 17 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained
- Settled
- 71
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 47.9%
- 34 of 71 picks
- Brier
- 0.586
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- Return · Closing price
- -18.9%
- flat stake, closing odds, 67 bets
By market
| Market | Hit rate | W–L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 47.9% | 34–37 | 0.586 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 69.0% | 49–22 | 0.226 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 39–32 | 0.243 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Monthly hit rate
| Month | n | Hit rate | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 30 | 53.3% | 16–14 |
| Sep 2026 | 28 | 42.9% | 12–16 |
| Oct 2026 | 13 | 46.2% | 6–7 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Latest settled LaLiga matches
Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.
| Date | Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis – Barcelona | 2–5 | Barcelona · 55% | Won | |
| Villarreal – Elche | 0–0 | Villarreal · 67% | Lost | |
| Espanyol – Atlético Madrid | 0–1 | Atlético Madrid · 46% | Won | |
| Deportivo A Coruña – Levante | 1–1 | Deportivo A Coruña · 54% | Lost | |
| Levante – Sevilla | 3–3 | Levante · 45% | Lost | |
| Racing Santander – Valencia | 2–2 | Racing Santander · 45% | Lost | |
| Real Betis – Osasuna | 5–2 | Real Betis · 64% | Won | |
| Real Sociedad – Deportivo A Coruña | 3–2 | Real Sociedad · 47% | Won | |
| Elche – Celta Vigo | 0–0 | Elche · 39% | Lost | |
| Real Madrid – Villarreal | 1–0 | Real Madrid · 67% | Won | |
| Barcelona – Getafe | 3–0 | Barcelona · 79% | Won | |
| Deportivo Alavés – Atlético Madrid | 1–2 | Atlético Madrid · 40% | Won | |
| Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club | 0–0 | Rayo Vallecano · 46% | Lost | |
| Málaga – Espanyol | 1–1 | Espanyol · 47% | Lost | |
| Valencia – Real Sociedad | 2–3 | Valencia · 41% | Lost | |
| Villarreal – Levante | 3–1 | Villarreal · 64% | Won | |
| Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid | 2–1 | Real Madrid · 40% | Lost | |
| Sevilla – Barcelona | 1–3 | Barcelona · 67% | Won | |
| Athletic Club – Deportivo Alavés | 0–0 | Athletic Club · 43% | Lost | |
| Osasuna – Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | Osasuna · 37% | Lost |
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the LaLiga predictions?
- Since August 15, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 34 of 71 settled LaLiga matches (47.9%), with a Brier score of 0.586.
- What is a Brier score?
- The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
- How is the LaLiga record computed?
- Every LaLiga prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.