What is a Brier score?

The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.

How is the Championship record computed?

Every Championship prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.

Track record

Championship track record

Every Championship prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.

All leagues

Since August 14, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 37 of 98 settled Championship matches (37.8%), with a Brier score of 0.690.

Over/under 2.5 goals landed 49.0% of the time (98 matches) and both-teams-to-score 55.1% (98).

One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -22.6% over 80 matches.

By month: Aug 2026 33% (36) · Sep 2026 37% (49) · Oct 2026 54% (13).

Window Aug 14 – Oct 16 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained

Settled: 98; 1X2 picks with a final score
Hit rate: 37.8%; 37 of 98 picks
Brier: 0.690; 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
Return · Closing price: -22.6%; flat stake, closing odds, 80 bets

By market

Market	Hit rate	W–L	Brier
1X2	37.8%	37–61	0.690
Over/Under 2.5	49.0%	48–50	0.268
Both teams to score	55.1%	54–44	0.247

Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).

Monthly hit rate

Month	n	Hit rate	W–L
Aug 2026	36	33.3%	12–24
Sep 2026	49	36.7%	18–31
Oct 2026	13	53.8%	7–6

Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.

Latest settled Championship matches

Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.

Results archive

Date	Match	Score	Pick	Result
Oct 16	Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers	1–2	Wolverhampton Wanderers · 46%	Won
Oct 14	Lincoln City – West Ham United	0–6	West Ham United · 61%	Won
Oct 14	Queens Park Rangers – Derby County	4–1	Queens Park Rangers · 41%	Won
Oct 14	Norwich City – Southampton	0–1	Southampton · 47%	Won
Oct 14	Portsmouth – Sheffield United	3–2	Sheffield United · 38%	Lost
Oct 13	Birmingham City – Preston North End	4–0	Birmingham City · 57%	Won
Oct 13	Stoke City – Middlesbrough	2–3	Middlesbrough · 45%	Won
Oct 13	Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion	1–2	Wrexham · 42%	Lost
Oct 13	Wolverhampton Wanderers – Bolton Wanderers	1–3	Wolverhampton Wanderers · 75%	Lost
Oct 13	Millwall – Swansea City	0–1	Millwall · 43%	Lost
Oct 13	Burnley – Charlton Athletic	2–2	Burnley · 48%	Lost
Oct 13	Cardiff City – Watford	5–1	Cardiff City · 44%	Won
Oct 13	Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers	0–1	Bristol City · 42%	Lost
Sep 20	Norwich City – Bolton Wanderers	3–4	Norwich City · 66%	Lost
Sep 19	Lincoln City – Swansea City	1–2	Draw · 39%	Lost
Sep 19	Burnley – Derby County	1–1	Derby County · 45%	Lost
Sep 19	Portsmouth – Blackburn Rovers	2–2	Portsmouth · 36%	Lost
Sep 19	Wrexham – Southampton	2–1	Southampton · 54%	Lost
Sep 19	Birmingham City – Middlesbrough	2–2	Middlesbrough · 38%	Lost
Sep 19	Queens Park Rangers – Preston North End	2–2	Queens Park Rangers · 50%	Lost

Frequently asked

How accurate are the Championship predictions?: Since August 14, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 37 of 98 settled Championship matches (37.8%), with a Brier score of 0.690.
What is a Brier score?: The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
How is the Championship record computed?: Every Championship prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.