What is a Brier score?

The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.

How is the Brasileirão record computed?

Every Brasileirão prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.

Track record

Brasileirão track record

Every Brasileirão prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.

All leagues

Since July 17, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 49 of 106 settled Brasileirão matches (46.2%), with a Brier score of 0.611.

Over/under 2.5 goals landed 46.2% of the time (106 matches) and both-teams-to-score 51.9% (106).

One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -7.7% over 63 matches.

By month: Jul 2026 39% (28) · Aug 2026 45% (40) · Sep 2026 47% (17) · Oct 2026 57% (21).

Window Jul 17 – Oct 17 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained

Settled: 106; 1X2 picks with a final score
Hit rate: 46.2%; 49 of 106 picks
Brier: 0.611; 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
Return · Closing price: -7.7%; flat stake, closing odds, 63 bets

By market

Market	Hit rate	W–L	Brier
1X2	46.2%	49–57	0.611
Over/Under 2.5	46.2%	49–57	0.264
Both teams to score	51.9%	55–51	0.254

Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).

Monthly hit rate

Month	n	Hit rate	W–L
Jul 2026	28	39.3%	11–17
Aug 2026	40	45.0%	18–22
Sep 2026	17	47.1%	8–9
Oct 2026	21	57.1%	12–9

Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.

Latest settled Brasileirão matches

Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.

Results archive

Date	Match	Score	Pick	Result
Oct 17	Mirassol – Internacional	2–0	Mirassol · 50%	Won
Oct 13	RB Bragantino – Cruzeiro	4–2	Cruzeiro · 37%	Lost
Oct 13	Chapecoense – Athletico Paranaense	1–4	Athletico Paranaense · 57%	Won
Oct 12	Coritiba – Botafogo	1–1	Botafogo · 38%	Lost
Oct 12	Bahia – Mirassol	1–0	Bahia · 50%	Won
Oct 11	Flamengo – Fluminense	1–0	Flamengo · 62%	Won
Oct 11	Grêmio – Internacional	1–1	Grêmio · 44%	Lost
Oct 11	Palmeiras – Corinthians	4–1	Palmeiras · 67%	Won
Oct 11	Atlético-MG – Santos	2–1	Atlético-MG · 47%	Won
Oct 11	São Paulo – Vitória	2–1	São Paulo · 48%	Won
Oct 10	Vasco da Gama – Remo	0–0	Vasco da Gama · 56%	Lost
Oct 9	Palmeiras – Bahia	1–0	Palmeiras · 65%	Won
Oct 9	Fluminense – Coritiba	4–0	Fluminense · 65%	Won
Oct 9	Athletico Paranaense – Atlético-MG	2–2	Athletico Paranaense · 51%	Lost
Oct 9	Santos – Flamengo	2–2	Flamengo · 51%	Lost
Oct 8	Cruzeiro – São Paulo	2–0	Cruzeiro · 54%	Won
Oct 8	Botafogo – Vasco da Gama	1–2	Botafogo · 52%	Lost
Oct 8	Vitória – Chapecoense	4–0	Vitória · 49%	Won

Frequently asked

How accurate are the Brasileirão predictions?: Since July 17, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 49 of 106 settled Brasileirão matches (46.2%), with a Brier score of 0.611.
What is a Brier score?: The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
How is the Brasileirão record computed?: Every Brasileirão prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.