Track record
1. Divisjon track record
Every 1. Divisjon prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Since June 7, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 69 of 128 settled 1. Divisjon matches (53.9%), with a Brier score of 0.586.
Over/under 2.5 goals landed 71.1% of the time (128 matches) and both-teams-to-score 70.3% (128).
One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned +13.4% over 16 matches.
By month: Jun 2026 52% (25) · Jul 2026 38% (16) · Aug 2026 58% (40) · Sep 2026 42% (24) · Oct 2026 74% (23).
Window Jun 7 – Oct 14 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained
- Settled
- 128
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 53.9%
- 69 of 128 picks
- Brier
- 0.586
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- Return · Closing price
- +13.4%
- flat stake, closing odds, 16 bets
By market
| Market | Hit rate | W–L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 53.9% | 69–59 | 0.586 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 71.1% | 91–37 | 0.216 |
| Both teams to score | 70.3% | 90–38 | 0.214 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Monthly hit rate
| Month | n | Hit rate | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 25 | 52.0% | 13–12 |
| Jul 2026 | 16 | 37.5% | 6–10 |
| Aug 2026 | 40 | 57.5% | 23–17 |
| Sep 2026 | 24 | 41.7% | 10–14 |
| Oct 2026 | 23 | 73.9% | 17–6 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Latest settled 1. Divisjon matches
Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.
| Date | Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryne – Raufoss | 1–1 | Bryne · 67% | Lost | |
| Strømsgodset – Kongsvinger | 5–1 | Strømsgodset · 48% | Won | |
| Sogndal – Odds Ballklubb | 0–1 | Odds Ballklubb · 44% | Won | |
| Hødd – Ranheim | 1–1 | Ranheim · 46% | Lost | |
| Stabæk – Sandnes Ulf | 4–1 | Stabæk · 65% | Won | |
| Moss – Egersund | 0–0 | Egersund · 39% | Lost | |
| FK Haugesund – Lyn | 3–0 | FK Haugesund · 75% | Won | |
| Strømmen – Åsane | 6–1 | Strømmen · 49% | Won | |
| Kongsvinger – Ranheim | 6–2 | Kongsvinger · 71% | Won | |
| Åsane – Sogndal | 2–1 | Åsane · 38% | Won | |
| Lyn – Strømsgodset | 1–5 | Strømsgodset · 54% | Won | |
| Stabæk – Strømmen | 2–2 | Stabæk · 70% | Lost | |
| Sandnes Ulf – FK Haugesund | 1–1 | FK Haugesund · 69% | Lost | |
| Egersund – Hødd | 3–1 | Egersund · 47% | Won | |
| Raufoss – Moss | 1–2 | Moss · 44% | Won | |
| Odds Ballklubb – Bryne | 2–1 | Odds Ballklubb · 38% | Won | |
| Moss – Kongsvinger | 0–2 | Kongsvinger · 68% | Won | |
| Bryne – Lyn | 1–0 | Bryne · 46% | Won | |
| Strømsgodset – Åsane | 1–0 | Strømsgodset · 80% | Won | |
| FK Haugesund – Stabæk | 2–0 | FK Haugesund · 55% | Won |
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the 1. Divisjon predictions?
- Since June 7, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 69 of 128 settled 1. Divisjon matches (53.9%), with a Brier score of 0.586.
- What is a Brier score?
- The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
- How is the 1. Divisjon record computed?
- Every 1. Divisjon prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.