Track record
Conference League track record
Every Conference League prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Since November 5, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 8 of 17 settled Conference League matches (47.1%), with a Brier score of 0.600.
Over/under 2.5 goals landed 47.1% of the time (17 matches) and both-teams-to-score 64.7% (17).
One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -32.7% over 17 matches.
Window Nov 5 – Nov 5 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained
- Settled
- 17
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 47.1%
- 8 of 17 picks
- Brier
- 0.600
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- Return · Closing price
- -32.7%
- flat stake, closing odds, 17 bets
By market
| Market | Hit rate | W–L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 47.1% | 8–9 | 0.600 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 47.1% | 8–9 | 0.265 |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | 11–6 | 0.230 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Monthly hit rate
| Month | n | Hit rate | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 17 | 47.1% | 8–9 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Latest settled Conference League matches
Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.
| Date | Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGF – Braga | 0–0 | – | – | |
| Atalanta – Kairat Almaty | 1–1 | Atalanta · 55% | Lost | |
| FC Midtjylland – Ajax | 1–6 | – | – | |
| KuPS – Gent | 0–0 | – | – | |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC – Hajduk Split | 1–0 | Hajduk Split · 73% | Lost | |
| Mjällby – Borac Banja Luka | 2–0 | Borac Banja Luka · 47% | Lost | |
| Thun – Heart of Midlothian | 3–1 | Thun · 59% | Won | |
| Trabzonspor – Freiburg | 0–1 | Trabzonspor · 61% | Lost |
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the Conference League predictions?
- Since November 5, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 8 of 17 settled Conference League matches (47.1%), with a Brier score of 0.600.
- What is a Brier score?
- The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
- How is the Conference League record computed?
- Every Conference League prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.