Track record
Liga Portugal track record
Every Liga Portugal prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Since August 7, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 35 of 66 settled Liga Portugal matches (53.0%), with a Brier score of 0.541.
Over/under 2.5 goals landed 53.0% of the time (66 matches) and both-teams-to-score 56.1% (66).
One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -6.8% over 55 matches.
By month: Aug 2026 48% (33) · Sep 2026 52% (25) · Oct 2026 75% (8).
Window Aug 7 – Oct 12 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained
- Settled
- 66
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 53.0%
- 35 of 66 picks
- Brier
- 0.541
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- Return · Closing price
- -6.8%
- flat stake, closing odds, 55 bets
By market
| Market | Hit rate | W–L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 53.0% | 35–31 | 0.541 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 35–31 | 0.260 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 37–29 | 0.256 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Monthly hit rate
| Month | n | Hit rate | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 33 | 48.5% | 16–17 |
| Sep 2026 | 25 | 52.0% | 13–12 |
| Oct 2026 | 8 | 75.0% | 6–2 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Latest settled Liga Portugal matches
Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.
| Date | Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicão – Alverca | 1–4 | Famalicão · 54% | Lost | |
| Arouca – Estrela da Amadora | 1–0 | Arouca · 52% | Won | |
| Benfica – Vitória de Guimarães | 2–0 | Benfica · 81% | Won | |
| Rio Ave – Nacional | 3–2 | Nacional · 37% | Lost | |
| Casa Pia AC – Santa Clara | 0–1 | Santa Clara · 56% | Won | |
| Marítimo – FC Porto | 1–2 | FC Porto · 76% | Won | |
| Braga – Sporting CP | 1–3 | Sporting CP · 48% | Won | |
| Moreirense – Gil Vicente | 0–1 | Gil Vicente · 41% | Won | |
| FC Porto – Benfica | 3–1 | FC Porto · 42% | Won | |
| Estoril – Casa Pia AC | 1–2 | Estoril · 62% | Lost | |
| Santa Clara – Braga | 0–0 | Braga · 37% | Lost | |
| Vitória de Guimarães – Moreirense | 1–1 | Vitória de Guimarães · 42% | Lost | |
| Sporting CP – Arouca | 2–2 | Sporting CP · 80% | Lost | |
| Alverca – Rio Ave | 1–0 | Alverca · 53% | Won | |
| Nacional – Famalicão | 0–4 | Famalicão · 39% | Won | |
| Braga – Estoril | 1–0 | Braga · 65% | Won | |
| Rio Ave – Estrela da Amadora | 3–3 | Estrela da Amadora · 48% | Lost | |
| Famalicão – Sporting CP | 1–1 | Sporting CP · 56% | Lost | |
| Benfica – Gil Vicente | 3–1 | Benfica · 73% | Won | |
| Arouca – Santa Clara | 1–2 | Arouca · 38% | Lost |
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the Liga Portugal predictions?
- Since August 7, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 35 of 66 settled Liga Portugal matches (53.0%), with a Brier score of 0.541.
- What is a Brier score?
- The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
- How is the Liga Portugal record computed?
- Every Liga Portugal prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.