Track record
Süper Lig track record
Every Süper Lig prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Since August 14, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 26 of 59 settled Süper Lig matches (44.1%), with a Brier score of 0.604.
Over/under 2.5 goals landed 61.0% of the time (59 matches) and both-teams-to-score 47.5% (59).
One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned +7.2% over 19 matches.
By month: Aug 2026 41% (27) · Sep 2026 29% (21) · Oct 2026 82% (11).
Window Aug 14 – Oct 17 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained
- Settled
- 59
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 44.1%
- 26 of 59 picks
- Brier
- 0.604
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- Return · Closing price
- +7.2%
- flat stake, closing odds, 19 bets
By market
| Market | Hit rate | W–L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 44.1% | 26–33 | 0.604 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 61.0% | 36–23 | 0.240 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 28–31 | 0.260 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Monthly hit rate
| Month | n | Hit rate | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 27 | 40.7% | 11–16 |
| Sep 2026 | 21 | 28.6% | 6–15 |
| Oct 2026 | 11 | 81.8% | 9–2 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Latest settled Süper Lig matches
Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.
| Date | Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor | 3–0 | Fenerbahçe · 67% | Won | |
| Amed Sportif – Konyaspor | 1–0 | Amed Sportif · 79% | Won | |
| Gençlerbirliği – Galatasaray | 0–1 | Galatasaray · 63% | Won | |
| Erzurumspor FK – Eyüpspor | 2–0 | Draw · 42% | Lost | |
| Çorum FK – Rizespor | 2–1 | Çorum FK · 70% | Won | |
| Eyüpspor – Göztepe | 0–4 | Göztepe · 44% | Won | |
| Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor | 2–1 | Beşiktaş · 56% | Won | |
| Konyaspor – Başakşehir | 0–0 | Başakşehir · 47% | Lost | |
| Rizespor – Fenerbahçe | 0–3 | Fenerbahçe · 55% | Won | |
| Samsunspor – Trabzonspor | 0–3 | Trabzonspor · 54% | Won | |
| Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa | 3–1 | Galatasaray · 67% | Won | |
| Göztepe – Rizespor | 2–2 | Göztepe · 45% | Lost | |
| Fenerbahçe – Eyüpspor | 8–0 | Fenerbahçe · 73% | Won | |
| Trabzonspor – Galatasaray | 4–0 | Galatasaray · 40% | Lost | |
| Başakşehir – Gençlerbirliği | 4–0 | Başakşehir · 64% | Won | |
| Kocaelispor – Gaziantep FK | 2–0 | Kocaelispor · 38% | Won | |
| Kasımpaşa – Konyaspor | 0–0 | Kasımpaşa · 48% | Lost | |
| Gaziantep FK – Fenerbahçe | 0–0 | Fenerbahçe · 59% | Lost | |
| Galatasaray – Kocaelispor | 1–0 | Galatasaray · 68% | Won | |
| Gençlerbirliği – Kasımpaşa | 1–2 | Gençlerbirliği · 36% | Lost |
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the Süper Lig predictions?
- Since August 14, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 26 of 59 settled Süper Lig matches (44.1%), with a Brier score of 0.604.
- What is a Brier score?
- The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
- How is the Süper Lig record computed?
- Every Süper Lig prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.