What is a Brier score?

The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.

How is the Bundesliga record computed?

Every Bundesliga prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.

Track record

Bundesliga track record

Every Bundesliga prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.

All leagues

Since August 28, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 20 of 38 settled Bundesliga matches (52.6%), with a Brier score of 0.620.

Over/under 2.5 goals landed 71.1% of the time (38 matches) and both-teams-to-score 57.9% (38).

One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -5.4% over 38 matches.

By month: Aug 2026 56% (9) · Sep 2026 50% (22) · Oct 2026 57% (7).

Window Aug 28 – Oct 16 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained

Settled: 38; 1X2 picks with a final score
Hit rate: 52.6%; 20 of 38 picks
Brier: 0.620; 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
Return · Closing price: -5.4%; flat stake, closing odds, 38 bets

By market

Market	Hit rate	W–L	Brier
1X2	52.6%	20–18	0.620
Over/Under 2.5	71.1%	27–11	0.203
Both teams to score	57.9%	22–16	0.226

Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).

Monthly hit rate

Month	n	Hit rate	W–L
Aug 2026	9	55.6%	5–4
Sep 2026	22	50.0%	11–11
Oct 2026	7	57.1%	4–3

Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.

Latest settled Bundesliga matches

Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.

Results archive

Date	Match	Score	Pick	Result
Oct 16	Eintracht Frankfurt – 1. FC Köln	1–0	Eintracht Frankfurt · 54%	Won
Oct 11	1. FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach	2–1	1. FC Köln · 48%	Won
Oct 10	RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt	6–0	RB Leipzig · 65%	Won
Oct 10	Augsburg – Bayern München	2–2	Bayern München · 75%	Lost
Oct 10	Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV	2–3	Hoffenheim · 68%	Lost
Oct 10	Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen	3–4	Bayer Leverkusen · 43%	Won
Oct 9	Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen	2–2	Borussia Dortmund · 78%	Lost
Sep 20	Bayer Leverkusen – RB Leipzig	2–0	Bayer Leverkusen · 50%	Won
Sep 19	VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund	0–1	Borussia Dortmund · 42%	Won
Sep 19	Hamburger SV – 1. FC Köln	2–1	1. FC Köln · 37%	Lost
Sep 19	Borussia Mönchengladbach – Mainz 05	3–4	Mainz 05 · 37%	Won
Sep 19	Werder Bremen – Augsburg	3–2	Augsburg · 41%	Lost
Sep 19	Eintracht Frankfurt – Freiburg	2–2	Eintracht Frankfurt · 40%	Lost
Sep 18	Bayern München – Union Berlin	7–0	Bayern München · 93%	Won
Sep 13	RB Leipzig – Hamburger SV	5–0	RB Leipzig · 68%	Won
Sep 12	1. FC Köln – Werder Bremen	1–1	1. FC Köln · 49%	Lost
Sep 12	Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart	2–1	VfB Stuttgart · 41%	Lost
Sep 12	Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach	5–0	Freiburg · 52%	Won
Sep 12	Mainz 05 – Eintracht Frankfurt	1–3	Mainz 05 · 57%	Lost
Sep 12	Augsburg – Bayer Leverkusen	2–2	Bayer Leverkusen · 46%	Lost

Frequently asked

How accurate are the Bundesliga predictions?: Since August 28, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 20 of 38 settled Bundesliga matches (52.6%), with a Brier score of 0.620.
What is a Brier score?: The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
How is the Bundesliga record computed?: Every Bundesliga prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.