Germany

Bundesliga

Model probabilities and the settled record for the Bundesliga.

The Bundesliga is Germany's top flight: 18 clubs and 34 rounds, with the 16th-placed side going into a relegation play-off. It is one of the highest-scoring major leagues, so the goal markets carry more weight in the record here.

Bayern München lead the Bundesliga on goal difference, level on 14 points with Borussia Dortmund after 6 matches.

The figures on this page are the settled Bundesliga record of the model: the hit rate is the share of 1X2 picks that came in, the Brier score measures how well the probabilities matched the results (lower is better), and the return is measured against the closing market price with one unit per match. Nothing is removed after the fact. How these figures are produced Full Bundesliga track record.

Fixture and result data last updated Oct 18, 10:20 PM GMT+2

Settled: 46
Hit rate: 52.2%; 24 of 46 picks
Brier: 0.618; 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
ROI: -10.0%; flat stake, closing odds, 44 bets

By month: Aug 2026 55.6% (9) · Sep 2026 50.0% (22) · Oct 2026 53.3% (15)

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Table

from the fixtures feed, refreshed every 6 hours

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	6	4	2	0	22–5	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	11–4	+7	14
3	Freiburg	6	4	1	1	15–6	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	16–9	+7	13
5	Mainz 05	6	3	1	2	14–10	+4	10
6	Elversberg	6	3	1	2	12–11	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	16–11	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	12–12	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	3	0	3	6–15	-9	9
10	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	16–12	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	10–16	-6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	2	1	3	8–11	-3	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	8–10	-2	6
14	Hoffenheim	6	2	0	4	11–14	-3	6
15	Schalke 04	6	1	2	3	4–7	-3	5
16	Paderborn	6	1	2	3	5–9	-4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	5–17	-12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	6	0	0	6	8–20	-12	0