England
Championship
Model probabilities and the settled record for the Championship.
The Championship is England's second tier and one of the densest calendars in Europe: 24 clubs and 46 rounds, with two automatic promotion places and a play-off for the third. The long season and tight margins make it a useful test of how the model handles draws.
Swansea City lead the Championship with 23 points from 11 matches, 1 ahead of West Ham United. Next up: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth on Tuesday, October 20.
The figures on this page are the settled Championship record of the model: the hit rate is the share of 1X2 picks that came in, the Brier score measures how well the probabilities matched the results (lower is better), and the return is measured against the closing market price with one unit per match. Nothing is removed after the fact. How these figures are produced Full Championship track record.
Fixture and result data last updated Oct 19, 06:00 AM GMT+2
- Settled
- 109
- Hit rate
- 37.6%
- 41 of 109 picks
- Brier
- 0.692
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- ROI
- -24.0%
- flat stake, closing odds, 91 bets
By month: Aug 2026 33.3% (36) · Sep 2026 36.7% (49) · Oct 2026 45.8% (24)
Upcoming
Open a fixture for its public pre-match overview: kick-off, standings, form and head-to-head.
Predictions are for members
Predictions for these Championship fixtures — pick, probabilities and goal markets — are for members. Create a free account and see them for 7 days.
Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 11 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 11 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 |  Birmingham City | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 7 |  Southampton(4) | 11 | +11 | 17 |
| 8 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Queens Park Rangers | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 |  Blackburn Rovers | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Sheffield United | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 |  Portsmouth | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wanderers | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 |  Bristol City | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Charlton Athletic | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 18 |  Lincoln City | 11 | -10 | 12 |
| 19 |  Cardiff City | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 20 |  Watford | 11 | -9 | 11 |
| 21 |  Norwich City | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby County | 11 | -11 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston North End | 11 | -15 | 4 |
Recent results
Final scores of the latest settled matches; open a match for the model’s settled pick.
- FinishedSwansea City0West Ham United1
- FinishedDerby County0Stoke City1
- FinishedBristol City0Sheffield United1
- FinishedNorwich City0Portsmouth1
- FinishedWest Bromwich Albion3Blackburn Rovers2
- FinishedWrexham4Preston North End1
- FinishedSouthampton0Bolton Wanderers0
- FinishedBirmingham City3Queens Park Rangers0
- FinishedMillwall2Lincoln City2
- FinishedWatford2Charlton Athletic0
Predictions are for members
109 settled Championship picks with outcome and score are for members. Create a free account and see the full record for 7 days.
Other leagues
Team strengths for the Championship are refitted as results come in; probabilities on older matches reflect the fit at publication time.