Brazil
Brasileirão
Model probabilities and the settled record for the Brasileirão.
The Brasileirão is Brazil's top flight: 20 clubs and 38 rounds played across a calendar-year season. Long travel and an unusually strong home advantage make it a distinct case, and its parameters are fitted on its own results.
Flamengo lead the Brasileirão with 67 points from 31 matches, 1 ahead of Palmeiras. Next up: Corinthians vs Vitória on Tuesday, October 20.
The figures on this page are the settled Brasileirão record of the model: the hit rate is the share of 1X2 picks that came in, the Brier score measures how well the probabilities matched the results (lower is better), and the return is measured against the closing market price with one unit per match. Nothing is removed after the fact. How these figures are produced Full Brasileirão track record.
Fixture and result data last updated Oct 19, 06:00 AM GMT+2
- Settled
- 114
- Hit rate
- 48.2%
- 55 of 114 picks
- Brier
- 0.604
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- ROI
- -2.0%
- flat stake, closing odds, 69 bets
By month: Jul 2026 39.3% (28) · Aug 2026 45.0% (40) · Sep 2026 47.1% (17) · Oct 2026 62.1% (29)
Upcoming
Open a fixture for its public pre-match overview: kick-off, standings, form and head-to-head.
Predictions are for members
Predictions for these Brasileirão fixtures — pick, probabilities and goal markets — are for members. Create a free account and see them for 7 days.
Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | +36 | 67 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | +32 | 66 |
| 3 |  Athletico Paranaense | 31 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | +4 | 51 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atlético-MG | 31 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  São Paulo | 31 | +1 | 42 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 31 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vitória | 30 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 31 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 |  Vasco da Gama | 30 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 31 | -7 | 32 |
| 18 |  Grêmio | 31 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | -15 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 30 | -32 | 18 |
Recent results
Final scores of the latest settled matches; open a match for the model’s settled pick.
Predictions are for members
114 settled Brasileirão picks with outcome and score are for members. Create a free account and see the full record for 7 days.
Other leagues
Team strengths for the Brasileirão are refitted as results come in; probabilities on older matches reflect the fit at publication time.