Italy
Serie A
Model probabilities and the settled record for the Serie A.
Serie A is Italy's top division with 20 clubs over 38 rounds. It tends to produce fewer goals than the other big leagues, which shows up directly in the over/under 2.5 probabilities on each match page.
Inter lead the Serie A on goal difference, level on 19 points with Lazio after 7 matches. Next up: Parma vs Torino on Monday, October 19.
The figures on this page are the settled Serie A record of the model: the hit rate is the share of 1X2 picks that came in, the Brier score measures how well the probabilities matched the results (lower is better), and the return is measured against the closing market price with one unit per match. Nothing is removed after the fact. How these figures are produced Full Serie A track record.
Fixture and result data last updated Oct 19, 12:20 AM GMT+2
- Settled
- 59
- Hit rate
- 59.3%
- 35 of 59 picks
- Brier
- 0.549
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- ROI
- -20.1%
- flat stake, closing odds, 21 bets
By month: Aug 2026 75.0% (20) · Sep 2026 50.0% (24) · Oct 2026 53.3% (15)
Upcoming
Open a fixture for its public pre-match overview: kick-off, standings, form and head-to-head.
Predictions are for members
Predictions for these Serie A fixtures — pick, probabilities and goal markets — are for members. Create a free account and see them for 7 days.
Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Roma | 7 | +13 | 17 |
| 4 |  Milan | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Cagliari | 6 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Juventus | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 10 |  Atalanta | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 |  Lecce | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 |  Sassuolo | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 |  Torino | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Bologna | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 |  Monza | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 |  Parma | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 |  Udinese | 7 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 |  Genoa | 7 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 7 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 7 | -10 | 3 |
Recent results
Final scores of the latest settled matches; open a match for the model’s settled pick.
Predictions are for members
57 settled Serie A picks with outcome and score are for members. Create a free account and see the full record for 7 days.
Other leagues
Team strengths for the Serie A are refitted as results come in; probabilities on older matches reflect the fit at publication time.