England
Premier League
Model probabilities and the settled record for the Premier League.
The Premier League is England's top division: 20 clubs, 38 rounds from August to May, with the bottom three relegated to the Championship. The model is fitted on its results alone and prices every fixture for 1X2, over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
Manchester City lead the Premier League with 21 points from 7 matches, 3 ahead of Arsenal.
The figures on this page are the settled Premier League record of the model: the hit rate is the share of 1X2 picks that came in, the Brier score measures how well the probabilities matched the results (lower is better), and the return is measured against the closing market price with one unit per match. Nothing is removed after the fact. How these figures are produced Full Premier League track record.
Fixture and result data last updated Oct 18, 10:20 PM GMT+2
- Settled
- 60
- Hit rate
- 46.7%
- 28 of 60 picks
- Brier
- 0.618
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- ROI
- -18.5%
- flat stake, closing odds, 55 bets
By month: Aug 2026 55.0% (20) · Sep 2026 34.8% (23) · Oct 2026 52.9% (17)
Upcoming
Open a fixture for its public pre-match overview: kick-off, standings, form and head-to-head.
No upcoming fixtures published for this league yet.
Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
| 7 |  Leeds United | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 |  Everton | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Hull City | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town | 7 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 |  AFC Bournemouth | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 |  Coventry City | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 |  Fulham | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | -6 | 3 |
Recent results
Final scores of the latest settled matches; open a match for the model’s settled pick.
- FinishedNottingham Forest0Arsenal1
- FinishedBrighton & Hove Albion5Crystal Palace0
- FinishedLeeds United1Manchester United1
- FinishedAFC Bournemouth2Sunderland0
- FinishedNewcastle United0Aston Villa1
- FinishedBrentford1Liverpool2
- FinishedEverton0Chelsea2
- FinishedLiverpool0Manchester City3
- FinishedCrystal Palace3Nottingham Forest1
- FinishedManchester United1Tottenham Hotspur1
Predictions are for members
57 settled Premier League picks with outcome and score are for members. Create a free account and see the full record for 7 days.
Other leagues
Team strengths for the Premier League are refitted as results come in; probabilities on older matches reflect the fit at publication time.