Track record
Premier League track record
Every Premier League prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Since August 21, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 23 of 52 settled Premier League matches (44.2%), with a Brier score of 0.638.
Over/under 2.5 goals landed 51.9% of the time (52 matches) and both-teams-to-score 51.9% (52).
One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -17.8% over 51 matches.
By month: Aug 2026 55% (20) · Sep 2026 35% (23) · Oct 2026 44% (9).
Window Aug 21 – Oct 17 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained
- Settled
- 52
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 44.2%
- 23 of 52 picks
- Brier
- 0.638
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- Return · Closing price
- -17.8%
- flat stake, closing odds, 51 bets
By market
| Market | Hit rate | W–L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 44.2% | 23–29 | 0.638 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 27–25 | 0.260 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 27–25 | 0.256 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Monthly hit rate
| Month | n | Hit rate | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 20 | 55.0% | 11–9 |
| Sep 2026 | 23 | 34.8% | 8–15 |
| Oct 2026 | 9 | 44.4% | 4–5 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Latest settled Premier League matches
Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the Premier League predictions?
- Since August 21, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 23 of 52 settled Premier League matches (44.2%), with a Brier score of 0.638.
- What is a Brier score?
- The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
- How is the Premier League record computed?
- Every Premier League prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.