Track record
Eliteserien track record
Every Eliteserien prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Since July 11, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 47 of 88 settled Eliteserien matches (53.4%), with a Brier score of 0.555.
Over/under 2.5 goals landed 67.0% of the time (88 matches) and both-teams-to-score 60.2% (88).
One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -32.5% over 11 matches.
By month: Jul 2026 58% (26) · Aug 2026 50% (28) · Sep 2026 57% (23) · Oct 2026 45% (11).
Window Jul 11 – Oct 17 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained
- Settled
- 88
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 53.4%
- 47 of 88 picks
- Brier
- 0.555
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- Return · Closing price
- -32.5%
- flat stake, closing odds, 11 bets
By market
| Market | Hit rate | W–L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 53.4% | 47–41 | 0.555 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 67.0% | 59–29 | 0.214 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 53–35 | 0.237 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Monthly hit rate
| Month | n | Hit rate | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 26 | 57.7% | 15–11 |
| Aug 2026 | 28 | 50.0% | 14–14 |
| Sep 2026 | 23 | 56.5% | 13–10 |
| Oct 2026 | 11 | 45.5% | 5–6 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Latest settled Eliteserien matches
Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.
| Date | Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking – Fredrikstad | 3–2 | Viking · 77% | Won | |
| Kristiansund – Aalesund | 1–4 | Kristiansund · 39% | Lost | |
| Hamarkameratene – Bodø/Glimt | 0–2 | Bodø/Glimt · 72% | Won | |
| KFUM – Vålerenga | 2–1 | KFUM · 48% | Won | |
| Lillestrøm – Molde | 2–2 | Lillestrøm · 41% | Lost | |
| Aalesund – Sarpsborg 08 | 2–4 | Aalesund · 46% | Lost | |
| Start – Hamarkameratene | 2–4 | Start · 42% | Lost | |
| Fredrikstad – Tromsø | 1–1 | Tromsø · 36% | Lost | |
| Rosenborg – Sandefjord | 1–1 | Rosenborg · 57% | Lost | |
| Bodø/Glimt – Kristiansund | 3–1 | Bodø/Glimt · 92% | Won | |
| Brann – Viking | 0–2 | Viking · 49% | Won | |
| Brann – Bodø/Glimt | 2–1 | Bodø/Glimt · 57% | Lost | |
| Tromsø – Hamarkameratene | 3–2 | Tromsø · 70% | Won | |
| Viking – Lillestrøm | 3–0 | Viking · 72% | Won | |
| Sandefjord – Start | 3–0 | Sandefjord · 58% | Won | |
| Vålerenga – Fredrikstad | 1–1 | Vålerenga · 48% | Lost | |
| Molde – Aalesund | 1–2 | Molde · 77% | Lost | |
| Kristiansund – Rosenborg | 1–3 | Rosenborg · 57% | Won | |
| Sarpsborg 08 – KFUM | 1–3 | Sarpsborg 08 · 53% | Lost | |
| Bodø/Glimt – Sandefjord | 3–2 | Bodø/Glimt · 80% | Won |
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the Eliteserien predictions?
- Since July 11, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 47 of 88 settled Eliteserien matches (53.4%), with a Brier score of 0.555.
- What is a Brier score?
- The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
- How is the Eliteserien record computed?
- Every Eliteserien prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.