What is a Brier score?

The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.

How is the Ekstraklasa record computed?

Every Ekstraklasa prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.

Track record

Ekstraklasa track record

Every Ekstraklasa prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.

All leagues

Since July 24, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 47 of 91 settled Ekstraklasa matches (51.6%), with a Brier score of 0.598.

Over/under 2.5 goals landed 54.9% of the time (91 matches) and both-teams-to-score 61.5% (91).

One unit on every 1X2 pick at the closing market price would have returned -47.1% over 7 matches.

By month: Jul 2026 64% (11) · Aug 2026 50% (36) · Sep 2026 45% (29) · Oct 2026 60% (15).

Window Jul 24 – Oct 17 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained

Settled: 91; 1X2 picks with a final score
Hit rate: 51.6%; 47 of 91 picks
Brier: 0.598; 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
Return · Closing price: -47.1%; flat stake, closing odds, 7 bets

By market

Market	Hit rate	W–L	Brier
1X2	51.6%	47–44	0.598
Over/Under 2.5	54.9%	50–41	0.236
Both teams to score	61.5%	56–35	0.240

Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).

Monthly hit rate

Month	n	Hit rate	W–L
Jul 2026	11	63.6%	7–4
Aug 2026	36	50.0%	18–18
Sep 2026	29	44.8%	13–16
Oct 2026	15	60.0%	9–6

Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.

Latest settled Ekstraklasa matches

Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.

Results archive

Date	Match	Score	Pick	Result
Oct 17	Cracovia – Legia Warszawa	1–1	Legia Warszawa · 47%	Lost
Oct 17	GKS Katowice – Pogoń Szczecin	0–1	GKS Katowice · 45%	Lost
Oct 17	Motor Lublin – Śląsk Wrocław	3–2	Motor Lublin · 52%	Won
Oct 16	Widzew Łódź – Wisła Kraków	0–0	Wisła Kraków · 37%	Lost
Oct 16	Wieczysta Kraków – Raków Częstochowa	1–2	Wieczysta Kraków · 53%	Lost
Oct 12	GKS Katowice – Wieczysta Kraków	2–1	GKS Katowice · 63%	Won
Oct 12	Radomiak Radom – Motor Lublin	2–3	Radomiak Radom · 39%	Lost
Oct 11	Legia Warszawa – Wisła Kraków	2–0	Legia Warszawa · 46%	Won
Oct 11	Pogoń Szczecin – Korona Kielce	2–0	Pogoń Szczecin · 46%	Won
Oct 11	Piast Gliwice – Widzew Łódź	2–1	Piast Gliwice · 44%	Won
Oct 10	Jagiellonia Białystok – Górnik Zabrze	1–3	Górnik Zabrze · 35%	Won
Oct 10	Śląsk Wrocław – Lech Poznań	1–4	Lech Poznań · 51%	Won
Oct 10	Cracovia – Zagłębie Lubin	3–1	Zagłębie Lubin · 35%	Lost
Oct 9	Raków Częstochowa – GKS Katowice	1–4	GKS Katowice · 40%	Won
Oct 9	Wieczysta Kraków – Wisła Płock	3–0	Wieczysta Kraków · 45%	Won
Sep 20	Lech Poznań – Radomiak Radom	5–1	Lech Poznań · 72%	Won
Sep 20	Jagiellonia Białystok – Legia Warszawa	1–3	Jagiellonia Białystok · 39%	Lost
Sep 20	Zagłębie Lubin – Wisła Płock	0–2	Zagłębie Lubin · 54%	Lost
Sep 20	Piast Gliwice – Pogoń Szczecin	1–2	Piast Gliwice · 40%	Lost
Sep 19	Motor Lublin – Górnik Zabrze	0–0	Górnik Zabrze · 50%	Lost

Frequently asked

How accurate are the Ekstraklasa predictions?: Since July 24, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 47 of 91 settled Ekstraklasa matches (51.6%), with a Brier score of 0.598.
What is a Brier score?: The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
How is the Ekstraklasa record computed?: Every Ekstraklasa prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.