Track record
Superligaen track record
Every Superligaen prediction timestamped before kick-off and settled against the final score. Nothing is removed afterwards.
Since July 24, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 29 of 61 settled Superligaen matches (47.5%), with a Brier score of 0.645.
Over/under 2.5 goals landed 39.3% of the time (61 matches) and both-teams-to-score 49.2% (61).
By month: Jul 2026 50% (6) · Aug 2026 54% (28) · Sep 2026 35% (20) · Oct 2026 57% (7).
Window Jul 24 – Oct 16 · How the numbers are defined · Brier score explained
- Settled
- 61
- 1X2 picks with a final score
- Hit rate
- 47.5%
- 29 of 61 picks
- Brier
- 0.645
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- Return · Closing price
- –
- No odds snapshots available yet, so no return can be computed.
By market
| Market | Hit rate | W–L | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 47.5% | 29–32 | 0.645 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 39.3% | 24–37 | 0.282 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 30–31 | 0.270 |
Over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are scored on the raw model probability and settled from the final score. Their Brier is binary (0.25 = coin flip).
Monthly hit rate
| Month | n | Hit rate | W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 6 | 50.0% | 3–3 |
| Aug 2026 | 28 | 53.6% | 15–13 |
| Sep 2026 | 20 | 35.0% | 7–13 |
| Oct 2026 | 7 | 57.1% | 4–3 |
Small months swing wildly; read them with the sample size in view.
Latest settled Superligaen matches
Score and the model’s pre-match pick, newest first. Open a match for the full overview.
| Date | Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Horsens – Randers FC | 0–0 | AC Horsens · 58% | Lost | |
| AGF – Sønderjyske | 3–0 | AGF · 59% | Won | |
| FC Midtjylland – FC København | 2–1 | FC Midtjylland · 42% | Won | |
| Brøndby IF – Lyngby | 5–2 | Brøndby IF · 53% | Won | |
| Randers FC – Viborg | 0–2 | Viborg · 49% | Won | |
| Silkeborg – AC Horsens | 3–3 | AC Horsens · 47% | Lost | |
| Nordsjælland – OB | 0–0 | Nordsjælland · 60% | Lost | |
| Viborg – Nordsjælland | 4–1 | Nordsjælland · 42% | Lost | |
| AC Horsens – AGF | 2–2 | AGF · 38% | Lost | |
| Brøndby IF – FC København | 0–1 | FC København · 50% | Won | |
| Sønderjyske – Randers FC | 4–2 | Sønderjyske · 39% | Won | |
| OB – FC Midtjylland | 1–1 | FC Midtjylland · 66% | Lost | |
| Lyngby – Silkeborg | 0–4 | Lyngby · 52% | Lost | |
| FC Midtjylland – Brøndby IF | 4–1 | FC Midtjylland · 53% | Won | |
| Nordsjælland – AGF | 2–0 | Nordsjælland · 43% | Won | |
| Randers FC – OB | 1–2 | Randers FC · 40% | Lost | |
| Lyngby – Sønderjyske | 1–1 | Lyngby · 51% | Lost | |
| Silkeborg – Viborg | 1–1 | Viborg · 53% | Lost | |
| FC København – AC Horsens | 2–0 | FC København · 58% | Won | |
| FC Midtjylland – Nordsjælland | 2–2 | FC Midtjylland · 60% | Lost |
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the Superligaen predictions?
- Since July 24, 2026 the model’s 1X2 pick came in 29 of 61 settled Superligaen matches (47.5%), with a Brier score of 0.645.
- What is a Brier score?
- The Brier score is the mean squared error of the published probabilities against what happened: 0 is perfect, 0.667 is a uniform guess across three outcomes. Lower is better.
- How is the Superligaen record computed?
- Every Superligaen prediction is stored with a timestamp before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. The hit rate counts the 1X2 pick, the Brier score the full probability split, and the return assumes one unit on each pick at the last captured market price.