France
Ligue 1
Model probabilities and the settled record for the Ligue 1.
Ligue 1 is France's top division. Since 2023-24 it has 18 clubs and 34 rounds, with a relegation play-off for the 16th place. Each match page shows the model's 1X2 split, goal lines and the fair price next to the market.
Lyon lead the Ligue 1 on goal difference, level on 14 points with Paris Saint-Germain after 7 matches.
The figures on this page are the settled Ligue 1 record of the model: the hit rate is the share of 1X2 picks that came in, the Brier score measures how well the probabilities matched the results (lower is better), and the return is measured against the closing market price with one unit per match. Nothing is removed after the fact. How these figures are produced Full Ligue 1 track record.
Fixture and result data last updated Oct 19, 12:20 AM GMT+2
- Settled
- 57
- Hit rate
- 52.6%
- 30 of 57 picks
- Brier
- 0.613
- 1X2, 3-outcome; lower is better, 0.667 = uniform guess
- ROI
- -5.2%
- flat stake, closing odds, 50 bets
By month: Aug 2026 44.4% (18) · Sep 2026 56.5% (23) · Oct 2026 56.3% (16)
Upcoming
Open a fixture for its public pre-match overview: kick-off, standings, form and head-to-head.
No upcoming fixtures published for this league yet.
Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 |  Lille | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Monaco | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Rennes | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Lens | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Brest | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nice | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | -6 | 2 |
Recent results
Final scores of the latest settled matches; open a match for the model’s settled pick.
Predictions are for members
55 settled Ligue 1 picks with outcome and score are for members. Create a free account and see the full record for 7 days.
Other leagues
Team strengths for the Ligue 1 are refitted as results come in; probabilities on older matches reflect the fit at publication time.