Model table
Eliteserien xG & xPTS table
Every Eliteserien club ranked by the model’s expected goals and expected points over this season’s settled matches, next to what actually happened.
Bodø/Glimt has the best expected goal difference in the Eliteserien (+20.2) after 11 rated matches.
Rosenborg has collected the most points above its expected points (+11.6); Hamarkameratene the fewest (-6.1).
Rated matches only: fixtures the model priced before kick-off. Sorted by expected goal difference. Fixture and result data last updated Oct 17
| # | Team | P | xG | xGA | xGD | xPTS | Pts−xPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodø/Glimt | 11 | 31.3 | 11.1 | +20.2 | 26.0 | +4.0 |
| 2 |  Viking | 12 | 30.7 | 12.1 | +18.6 | 27.1 | +0.9 |
| 3 |  Molde | 11 | 20.7 | 14.7 | +6.0 | 18.7 | -0.7 |
| 4 |  Brann | 10 | 19.9 | 16.2 | +3.7 | 15.9 | +0.1 |
| 5 |  Tromsø | 9 | 14.4 | 11.1 | +3.3 | 14.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 |  Lillestrøm | 10 | 18.6 | 15.5 | +3.1 | 15.8 | -1.8 |
| 7 |  KFUM | 11 | 15.5 | 18.7 | -3.2 | 13.2 | +2.8 |
| 8 |  Rosenborg | 11 | 15.1 | 18.8 | -3.8 | 13.4 | +11.6 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 11 | 15.6 | 19.4 | -3.8 | 13.1 | +0.9 |
| 10 |  Vålerenga | 11 | 18.7 | 22.9 | -4.1 | 13.0 | -4.0 |
| 11 |  Sandefjord | 10 | 12.6 | 17.8 | -5.2 | 10.9 | -1.9 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 12 | 15.9 | 21.1 | -5.2 | 13.8 | +1.2 |
| 13 |  Hamarkameratene | 13 | 18.9 | 24.5 | -5.5 | 15.1 | -6.1 |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 12 | 18.9 | 25.1 | -6.1 | 13.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 |  Start | 10 | 13.2 | 19.9 | -6.7 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 16 |  Kristiansund | 12 | 12.4 | 23.5 | -11.2 | 10.3 | -2.3 |
What is an xG table?
An xG table re-orders the league by chance quality instead of goals: expected goals for, expected goals against and their difference. It shows which clubs are over- or under-performing their play. A side high in the real table but low here is riding good finishing or a goalkeeper in form, and usually drifts back.
The figures here are the model’s pre-match expected goals — its attack and defence ratings, refitted after every round — not shot-based xG. They are stored before kick-off and never revised, so the table is a record of what the model expected, matched against what happened.
Expected points (xPTS) convert each match’s probabilities into points: win probability × 3 plus draw probability, summed over the club’s matches. Points minus xPTS is the luck column: positive means the club has collected more than its performances were worth.
xG, xPTS and the other terms in the glossary · How the model rates attack and defence