Sheffield United
Norwich City
The model leans Sheffield United at 37%. Expected goals: Sheffield United 1.58, Norwich City 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%. Sheffield United won 3 of their last 6; Norwich City won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sheffield United | 40% | 2.52 | 2.55 | 36% | +4 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | 3.30 | 28% | −2 |
| 2Norwich City | 34% | 2.94 | 2.57 | 36% | −2 |
Pick: Sheffield United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–111.1%15.4%
- 2–18.7%10.0%
- 1–28.0%–
- 1–07.6%9.1%
- 0–17.0%–
- 2–26.3%8.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sheffield United 0| Sheffield United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 20% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Sheffield United 0 | 54% | 1.86 | 1.88 | 51% | +2 |
| Asian handicap | Norwich City 0 | 46% | 2.16 | 1.98 | 49% | −2 |
| Draw no bet | Sheffield United | 54% | 1.86 | 1.83 | 50% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | Norwich City | 46% | 2.17 | 1.83 | 50% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 | 1.57 | 59% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 39% | 2.55 | 2.25 | 41% | −2 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.