Norwich City
Burnley
The model leans Burnley at 31%. Expected goals: Norwich City 1.35, Burnley 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Norwich City won 3 of their last 6; Burnley won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norwich City | 36% | 2.80 | 2.01 | 47% | −11 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.55 | 3.60 | 26% | +2 |
| 2Burnley | 36% | 2.77 | 3.40 | 28% | +9 |
Pick: Burnley. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 43% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Norwich City 0| Norwich City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.