West Bromwich Albion
Burnley
The model leans Burnley at 42%. Expected goals: West Bromwich Albion 1.03, Burnley 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 50%. West Bromwich Albion won 3 of their last 6; Burnley won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Bromwich Albion | 25% | 3.92 | 2.40 | 39% | −13 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.46 | 3.30 | 28% | +1 |
| 2Burnley | 46% | 2.19 | 2.75 | 34% | +12 |
Pick: Burnley. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–08.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Burnley −0.5| West Bromwich Albion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 17% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.