Bradford City
Burnley
The model leans Burnley at 37%. Expected goals: Bradford City 1.11, Burnley 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Bradford City won 2 of their last 5; Burnley won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bradford City | 31% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Burnley | 39% | 2.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Burnley. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bradford City 0| Bradford City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 22% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.