Predictions · League One · outside model coverage

Bradford City

12
Won

Cambridge United

The model leans Cambridge United at 37%. Expected goals: Bradford City 0.78, Cambridge United 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 65%. Bradford City won 2 of their last 5; Cambridge United won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Bradford City26%3.83
XDraw35%2.82
2Cambridge United38%2.61

Pick: Cambridge United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.78 – 1.00
LineOverUnder
1.553%47%
2.526%74%
3.510%90%
Both teams to scoreYes34%No66%

Most likely scores

  • 0016.9%
  • 0116.9%
  • 1013.2%
  • 1113.1%
  • 028.5%
  • 126.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Bradford City 0
Bradford City lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%19%73%
-0.527%73%
027%33%40%
+0.560%40%
+160%24%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.