Cambridge United
Wigan Athletic
The model leans Cambridge United at 51%. Expected goals: Cambridge United 1.34, Wigan Athletic 0.53. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%. Cambridge United won 3 of their last 6; Wigan Athletic won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cambridge United | 56% | 1.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| 2Wigan Athletic | 14% | 7.33 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cambridge United. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 0.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 1–020.6%
- 0–015.4%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cambridge United −0.5| Cambridge United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.