Cambridge United
Millwall
The model leans Cambridge United at 39%. Expected goals: Cambridge United 1.14, Millwall 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%. Cambridge United won 3 of their last 6; Millwall won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cambridge United | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Millwall | 25% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cambridge United. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.3%
- 0–014.3%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cambridge United −0.5| Cambridge United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.