Southampton
Millwall
The model leans Southampton at 50%. Expected goals: Southampton 1.70, Millwall 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. Southampton won 4 of their last 6; Millwall won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Southampton | 51% | 1.98 | 1.91 | 49% | +2 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.80 | 3.70 | 25% | +1 |
| 2Millwall | 23% | 4.33 | 3.50 | 27% | −3 |
Pick: Southampton. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.70 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–16.7%
- 1–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Southampton −0.5| Southampton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.