Southampton
Stoke City
The model leans Southampton at 60%. Expected goals: Southampton 2.08, Stoke City 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Southampton won 4 of their last 6; Stoke City won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Southampton | 67% | 1.48 | 1.53 | 60% | +8 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.71 | 4.00 | 23% | −2 |
| 2Stoke City | 11% | 8.78 | 5.25 | 17% | −6 |
Pick: Southampton. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.08 – 0.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.8%
- 1–012.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–08.9%
- 3–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Southampton −1| Southampton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 25% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 19% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.