Colchester United
Southampton
The model leans Southampton at 50%. Expected goals: Colchester United 0.99, Southampton 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%. Colchester United won 2 of their last 6; Southampton won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Colchester United | 23% | 4.41 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Southampton | 50% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Southampton. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 1.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.2%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–07.8%
- 1–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Southampton −0.5| Colchester United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.