Norwich City
Colchester United
The model leans Norwich City at 44%. Expected goals: Norwich City 1.41, Colchester United 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%. Norwich City won 3 of their last 6; Colchester United won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norwich City | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Colchester United | 23% | 4.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Norwich City. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Norwich City −0.5| Norwich City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.