Norwich City
Milton Keynes Dons
The model leans Norwich City at 33%. Expected goals: Norwich City 1.34, Milton Keynes Dons 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Norwich City won 3 of their last 6; Milton Keynes Dons won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norwich City | 36% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Milton Keynes Dons | 35% | 2.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: Norwich City. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Norwich City 0| Norwich City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.