Milton Keynes Dons
Leicester City
The model leans Milton Keynes Dons at 51%. Expected goals: Milton Keynes Dons 1.93, Leicester City 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%. Milton Keynes Dons won 0 of their last 6; Leicester City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Milton Keynes Dons | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.19 | – | – | – |
| 2Leicester City | 17% | 5.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.93 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–010.6%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.6%
- 3–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Milton Keynes Dons −1| Milton Keynes Dons line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 24% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 22% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.