Leicester City
Burton Albion
The model leans Leicester City at 34%. Expected goals: Leicester City 1.24, Burton Albion 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Leicester City won 2 of their last 6; Burton Albion won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leicester City | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Burton Albion | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Leicester City. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leicester City 0| Leicester City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.