Notts County
Leicester City
The model leans Notts County at 44%. Expected goals: Notts County 1.65, Leicester City 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Notts County won 1 of their last 6; Leicester City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Notts County | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Leicester City | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Notts County. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–26.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Notts County −0.5| Notts County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.