Leicester City
Plymouth Argyle
The model leans Plymouth Argyle at 39%. Expected goals: Leicester City 1.42, Plymouth Argyle 1.64. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Leicester City won 2 of their last 6; Plymouth Argyle won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leicester City | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Plymouth Argyle | 42% | 2.40 | – | – | – |
Pick: Plymouth Argyle. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.64| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leicester City 0| Leicester City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.