Plymouth Argyle
Bradford City
The model leans Plymouth Argyle at 44%. Expected goals: Plymouth Argyle 1.57, Bradford City 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Plymouth Argyle won 1 of their last 6; Bradford City won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Plymouth Argyle | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Bradford City | 25% | 4.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Plymouth Argyle. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.6%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 39% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Plymouth Argyle −0.5| Plymouth Argyle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.