Bradford City
Rochdale
The model leans Rochdale at 37%. Expected goals: Bradford City 1.02, Rochdale 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Bradford City won 2 of their last 5; Rochdale won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bradford City | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Rochdale | 40% | 2.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rochdale. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–28.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bradford City 0| Bradford City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 19% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 28% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.