Tranmere Rovers
Rochdale
The model leans Rochdale at 60%. Expected goals: Tranmere Rovers 0.80, Rochdale 2.20. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Tranmere Rovers won 1 of their last 5; Rochdale won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tranmere Rovers | 11% | 8.85 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Rochdale | 68% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rochdale. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.80 – 2.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.1%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.9%
- 1–18.8%
- 1–37.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rochdale −1.5| Tranmere Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 9% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 18% | 69% |
| +0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| +1 | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| +1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.