Predictions · League Two · outside model coverage

Tranmere Rovers

20
Won

Shrewsbury Town

The model leans Tranmere Rovers at 36%. Expected goals: Tranmere Rovers 1.29, Shrewsbury Town 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Tranmere Rovers won 1 of their last 5; Shrewsbury Town won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tranmere Rovers38%2.63
XDraw30%3.35
2Shrewsbury Town32%3.11

Pick: Tranmere Rovers. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.17
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.544%56%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes50%No50%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.9%
  • 1011.1%
  • 0110.0%
  • 008.6%
  • 218.3%
  • 127.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tranmere Rovers 0
Tranmere Rovers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.518%82%
-118%22%61%
-0.539%61%
039%27%33%
+0.567%33%
+167%20%14%
+1.586%14%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.