Rochdale
Shrewsbury Town
The model leans Rochdale at 65%. Expected goals: Rochdale 2.29, Shrewsbury Town 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Rochdale won 1 of their last 6; Shrewsbury Town won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rochdale | 74% | 1.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Shrewsbury Town | 8% | 13.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rochdale. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.29 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.4%
- 1–012.6%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rochdale −1.5| Rochdale line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| -1 | 52% | 24% | 25% |
| -0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| 0 | 75% | 16% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.