Rochdale
Crawley Town
The model leans Rochdale at 64%. Expected goals: Rochdale 2.19, Crawley Town 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 60%. Rochdale won 1 of their last 6; Crawley Town won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rochdale | 74% | 1.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Crawley Town | 8% | 13.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rochdale. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.19 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 2–015.1%
- 1–013.8%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rochdale −1.5| Rochdale line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| -0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| 0 | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.