York City
Crawley Town
The model leans York City at 70%. Expected goals: York City 2.80, Crawley Town 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%. York City won 2 of their last 6; Crawley Town won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1York City | 83% | 1.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Crawley Town | 4% | 23.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: York City. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 83%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.80 – 0.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 2–013.7%
- 3–012.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 4–09.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: York City −2| York City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| -1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| -0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| 0 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.