York City
Bristol Rovers
The model leans York City at 67%. Expected goals: York City 2.67, Bristol Rovers 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 52%. York City won 2 of their last 6; Bristol Rovers won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1York City | 76% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Bristol Rovers | 8% | 12.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: York City. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.67 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.0%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: York City −2| York City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| -1 | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.