York City
Exeter City
The model leans York City at 67%. Expected goals: York City 2.57, Exeter City 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 51%. York City won 2 of their last 6; Exeter City won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1York City | 75% | 1.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Exeter City | 9% | 11.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: York City. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.57 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.4%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: York City −1.5| York City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.